I have read a number of “best case scenarios” for Y2K. The bottom line of these scenarios is that little will happen, the shortages, outages and other system fluctuations will be minor, and we will quickly get “back to normal”.
I believe Y2K provides a perfect opportunity for us to question “normal”.
“Normal” for most of the world’s human population is a bureaucratic, corporate profit driven mess that is destroying ecologies, destroying democracy and turning our citizens into superficial, materialistic consumers. “Normal” is where good and bad are turned on their heads -- we know we are destroying the planet, yet find ourselves unable to stop the destruction. “Normal” is a system where Americans consume 40 times the world resources and produce the overwhelming amount of the world’s pollution. “Normal” is constant low-level warfare on every continent, including the warfare in our inner cities in America and the warfare in each of our hearts, where the casualty list is the suicide list.
In my new book, "Creating a World That Works For All", I call this the BREAKER Society.
For most of us, we cannot even imagine any other way to live. We have been raised in the belly of this story. Although we can see its negative effects, we lack a viable alternative.
Someone told me a great metaphor: we are all on a great train, one that is heading north, the direction of destruction. Some of us are walking south on this northbound train, congratulating ourselves that we are not heading in the direction of destruction. Needless to say, in this train scenario are walking south efforts are totally ineffective. Y2K brings the train to a screeching halt (or, at least gets it to slow down long enough for us to look for alternative transportation).
For me, the Y2K “best case scenario” is not based on the Breaker “normal”. Another story has been trying to emerge for a long time -- a story based on values such as inclusivity, sustainability, authenticity, and a reverent respect for ecologies. This story will mend the excesses of the Breaker society. I call this the “Mender Story”.
Regardless of the severity of Y2K, if given enough time and resources, America will get back to the Breaker “normal”. However, if we are courageous and dedicated, if we are committed to the Mender values of inclusivity, authenticity and sustainability, we can leave the “normal” Breaker society behind, and embark on the course of a true new society.
So, what follows is my “best case scenario”, based on very serious Y2K disruptions. Part of this scenario is based on the work I have been doing in Havana, Cuba over the past three years. Cuba has already experienced its own mini- Y2K, with the dual challenge of the meltdown of the Soviet system and the US Embargo. They have already had people eating dogs and cats, widespread power outages and the rest. Water is still delivered to some sections of Havana by government tanker truck.
The people of Cuba are emerging from the
“Special Period” with a sense of greater community, resiliency and optimism.
They found so many ways around the government bureaucracy that the government
was forced to respond to the people’s economy. The most notable aspect
of the government’s change was the US dollar going from the black-market
to become the primary currency for Cuba.
THE DEATH OF CORPORATISM
The global corporate
economy collapses --
and things get better!
In Y2K, the interlinked, merger-crazed global corporate structure collapses. Each part of the picture suffers collapse, and drags down each other part. The unraveling can start anywhere: hotels, air transportation, entertainment industry, manufacturing, telecommunications, etc.
When that structure collapses, we realize something that should have been obvious for awhile: there are TWO economies, and most of us were never a real part of the global corporate structure. We realize that global corporatism has as little to do with markets as modern televangelism has to do with the word of Jesus. Y2K provides us with an opportunity to repair and expand local markets and local economies.
You may lose your retirement funds and even your job, but your actual present value is the same. (Your value may go up, if your mortgage company, a part of global corporatism, dissolves or otherwise loses the ability to collect the mortgage payment you can no longer make.)
Your stress level decreases, because you are no longer going to work on a job that is driving you crazy. The elevators don’t work: you can’t get up to the 22nd floor of the building to do your job. The telecommunications system is seriously compromised; you can’t use the minimal services available to “wheel and deal” for your corporation. You don’t get a paycheck anymore (but, you don’t have mortgage, credit card payments, student loans, car payments and other connections to the global corporate structure). Life processes become much simpler: food, shelter, necessary energy, community.
The global corporate structure transforms to:
In Y2K, the interlinked, computer-dependent, telecommunications-dependent global banking system fails. Each bank loses liquidity, suffers from a run on deposits, and melts down as their large global corporate depositors fail. Weak banks drag down strong ones. People lose faith in the mega-banking system, and the system collapses.
When people take their money out of the banks, it jump-starts local economic activity, bartering for goods and services, that is separate from banks. As the dollars wear out, other local currencies replace it. Dollars are still used as exchanges between local economies.
FOCUS ON THE BASICS
1. Food Gets Scarce -- And Your Health Gets Better!
In Y2K, the global agribusiness structure also collapses. From factory farms in the Midwest to the factory plantations in Central and South America and throughout the world, the system that impoverished the people of the world in order to put an over-abundance of food on the tables (and in the garbage dumps) of America falls apart. The companies themselves go belly up, and/or the transportation companies that moved millions of tons of food disappear.
From the American point of view, less food is available. You can’t go to the supermarket, buy a bag of potato chips and scarf them down, along with a six-pack of beer, while watching television. Processed foods are almost non-existent, and it takes a tremendous amount of energy (physical and mental) to make a potato chip.
Because you have joined a Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) group, you have enough food to feed your family. Because food is rationed (carefully measured and used), we have to think carefully about our daily calorie intake and the nutritional value of the food we eat. Also, since you have to bicycle to the collection point for your bi-weekly food allotment, you are getting plenty of exercise without having to join a health club! Living becomes its own health club.
You pay for your food by trading your time and talents in the community for credits, applied to our food account. Everyone in the family works for credits, including the kids, who earn credits by delivering food to elderly people.
2. The Government Collapses
--
And Things Get Better!
In Y2K, the federal government ceases
to be a realistic player in the lives of most people. What is left
by Y2K induced collapse of government support systems is further eroded
by the gridlock of bickering and blaming among politicians. State
and local governments step into the void created by the collapse of federal
government. The city-state becomes the primary political focus of
our lives.
Veterans, welfare, social security and other types of government transfers fail. So does the ability of the federal government to levy and collect income tax. Community economic structures institute voluntary taxes of members credits to provide a real social safety net for those within their local communities who are truly in need.
We find out during this time that everyone can do something to help themselves.
3. Who Gets The Power?
The electrical grid east of the Rockies
collapses. The Western and Texas grids hold up, but are weakened.
Everybody gets half as much electricity as before.
The fuel delivery system collapses. Refineries halt production, and fuels are used for emergency and important community purposes. Black-market gasoline, of dubious quality, is available for up to $10.00 per gallon.
Who gets this electricity and fuel? By pre-arrangement, electricity and fuel is made available to neighborhoods and sub-neighborhoods, not individuals. Each community makes decisions on how much each family and individual gets.
Also by pre-arrangement, certain industries
do NOT get power. Industries that were harmful, wasteful, produced
toxics or produced nothing of human value (like arms manufacturers, leafblowers
and microwave ovens) are put on a waiting list for available power.
Hospitals get power, but only for basic treatments and operations, not
cosmetic surgery or exotic treatments.
CIVIL UNREST? WHAT CIVIL UNREST?
In Y2K, the biggest worry is that America’s civil populations turn on each other, in an orgy of violence and rioting. Or, that low-level stealing and violence erode the social fabric. There is a fear that different communities will have different resources, and that fighting will take place between neighborhoods.
This just doesn’t happen. Diverse communities realize that they have months in which to get to know each other, to talk about their fears, their hopes and their resources. They work things out. Looting is at a minimum, since people realize the typical things that are stolen during a riot just won’t have any value in a post- Y2K environment (starving to death in a room full of VCRs...). The word has spread: the only way to survive in Y2K is TO BELONG TO A COMMUNITY. The only way communities will survive is to be linked to as many other communities as possible. People join together and help each other, not because they like each other, but because they recognize that it is in their own self-interest to do so.
OUR VALUES GET CLARIFIED
Because our resources are restricted, we are forced, on a societal basis, to understand and agree upon a common set of values. 200+ years after the Declaration of Independence and Bill of Rights, we get to think about just what is important to us.
We abandon the values of Breakers:
In these times, we must remember that fear and suffering is an internal condition, our response to difficult times. We can decide to respond otherwise, with hope, optimism and enthusiasm. It’s our choice.
I am very interested in how you see these scenarios. Let me know your thoughts.
Peace,
Sharif